Systems - When Control Spirals Out Of Control
Reynolds' Third Law: Whatever politicians control, they will use against you to get what they want.
This study, “Seattle tried to guarantee higher pay for delivery drivers – here’s why it didn’t work as intended,” is a nice example of government bureaucrats revealing how little they know about systems in general and first principles in particular. Consider:
“When what drivers get paid per delivery rises, gig work becomes more attractive, drawing new drivers into the market. Meanwhile, higher costs to pay drivers are passed along to consumers through increased delivery prices, which can lead to fewer orders and lower tips. More drivers chasing fewer deliveries means longer waits for tasks.”
After reading through the article, I sketched out the following causal loop diagram:
The result after putting this system in place and letting it run for several months:
“Put those pieces together – higher pay per delivery, but fewer deliveries and lower tips – and they almost exactly cancel out. After a brief bump in the first month, monthly earnings returned to pre-policy levels.”
Had the bureaucrats in Seattle give this a little thought beyond enforcing a base pay rate policy, they could have seen the effects before experiencing them. I’m no commerce expert, but the potential effects occurred to me before reading about them in the article. It’s probably a safe bet the bureaucrats didn’t ask for insights from the people the policy would impact - that is, the businesses and the gig workers.
It’s not at all surprising that the bureaucrat’s response to the unintended consequences is to create additional layers of bureaucracy:
Limit the number of active drivers (e.g. the taxi medallion system cities used to insure high driver pay)
Force platforms to include tipping features
The picture grows more complicated when other factors outside the control of the gig workers, such as the price of gasoline, are included in the picture.
According to a Wall Street Journal article, rising gasoline prices appear to be the final straw for may gig workers. Uber and Lyft drivers are declining requests for farther destinations and are having to work more hours just to keep their previous level of income. Many have opted to seek other sources of income altogether.
This is how control spirals out of control. Eventually this will create more government jobs and, in the end, it’s the customer who will pay for the whole damn zombie mess. I’m just cynical enough to think that was the intent all along.
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“Systems - When Control Spirals Out Of Control” last updated on 2026.03.25.